The recently concluded assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand have once again brought the accuracy of exit polls into question. These surveys, which aim to provide an idea about the voter's choice shift and expected results, have been plagued by inaccuracies in recent years. This article delves into the factors that contribute to inaccurate exit poll predictions, including sampling methods, voter honesty, and data analysis, using the 2019 Indian assembly elections as an example.
As the second phase of the Jharkhand assembly elections reaches its conclusion, multiple exit polls are showing a clear advantage for the BJP-led NDA alliance. While one pollster predicts a victory for the Congress-JMM alliance, others are giving a significant lead to the NDA. The results will be announced on November 23, when the fate of both alliances will be decided.
The far-right National Rally party in France, led by Marine Le Pen, was expected to come out on top in the parliamentary election but an exit poll suggested a surprising loss. As a result, protests broke out in Paris, with images showing clashes with police. The euro also saw a drop in value as the projections point to a hung parliament and uncertainties over market volatility. Analysts predict that the markets will be relieved by the third-place forecast for the far-right party.
After over a decade of accurate exit poll predictions, Pradeep Gupta, chairman and managing director of Axis My India, was left in tears when the results of the Lok Sabha elections did not align with his firm's exit poll results. Despite predicting a landslide victory for the ruling NDA, the preliminary results showed a significant gap, leading to a breakdown on live television. Gupta's emotional outburst on television became a talking point as the election discussions continued, highlighting the unpredictability and importance of the Indian elections.
In a dramatic turn of events, the India National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) has emerged victorious in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, with Congress-led bloc securing over 200 seats across the country. This comes as a shock to the exit poll predictions, which gave the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) a landslide victory with 350+ seats. However, BJP-led NDA has been reduced to 240 seats, indicating a significant decline from their 2019 election results. The counting is currently underway and the INDIA alliance continues to make gains, making it highly unlikely for NDA to achieve their target of 400 seats. Stay updated with the real-time results and numbers of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
SBI's share price on the NSE saw a whopping 10% increase on Monday due to the positive sentiment surrounding the exit poll prediction of a BJP-win. This resulted in the bank's market capitalization crossing Rs 8 lakh crore for the first time. Analysts are also bullish on the stock, with a consensus 'buy' recommendation and a potential 11% upside. SBI also reported a strong profit in its March quarter results, further boosting investor confidence.
As the country eagerly awaits the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all eyes are on whether the exit poll predictions will hold true. The NDA, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is expected to come back to power with a thumping majority according to major exit polls. However, comparing with the Congress' historic victory in 1984 and their performance in states where the BJP is struggling, raises the question of whether the ruling party can surpass the 400 seat mark. A look back at the 1984 elections also shows that since then, no party has come close to the 48.12% vote share achieved by the Congress, except for the BJP's 37.7% in 2019.
According to the India Today-Axis Exit Poll, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to make significant gains in the Odisha Assembly Elections, putting the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in danger of losing its majority. The Exit Poll predicted that the BJP and BJD will each win 62-80 Assembly seats, a huge decline for BJD from its 2019 tally of 112 seats. The BJP, on the other hand, is projected to increase its tally from 23 to 62-80 seats. Various experts and leaders have analyzed these results, with some attributing it to rising anti-incumbency against the BJD and the BJP's growing popularity in the state.
Axis My India CMD Pradeep Gupta responds to Rahul Gandhi's remarks on his company's exit polls. Gupta suggests that the Congress failed to sell themselves as a brand without a tangible product. He also highlights the interdependence of packaging and marketing, noting that marketing alone is ineffective without a quality product. Gupta also addresses the presence of any wave of support for Rahul Gandhi during the elections and the impact of the INDIA bloc.
As exit poll agencies predict a massive majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party-led NDA, the business sector is already celebrating with Sensex and Nifty recording significant increases in pre-open trade. PM Modi's statement about Bharat's development trajectory adding to the positive sentiment. In other business news, Amul has announced a hike in milk prices, NHAI has increased toll tax rates, and Delhi Airport has achieved a remarkable feat by reducing power consumption. Additionally, records show a 10% growth in GST collection in May.