As the country eagerly awaits the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, all eyes are on whether the exit poll predictions will hold true. The NDA, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is expected to come back to power with a thumping majority according to major exit polls. However, comparing with the Congress' historic victory in 1984 and their performance in states where the BJP is struggling, raises the question of whether the ruling party can surpass the 400 seat mark. A look back at the 1984 elections also shows that since then, no party has come close to the 48.12% vote share achieved by the Congress, except for the BJP's 37.7% in 2019.
Lok Sabha Election 2024: Will Exit Polls Hold True?
The 2024 Indian general election, also known as the Lok Sabha election, is scheduled to be held in April or May 2024. As the country eagerly anticipates the results, exit polls have predicted a comfortable victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, the question remains whether the exit polls will hold true, especially considering the historical context and the current political landscape.
Historical Context:
In 1984, the Indian National Congress (INC), led by Rajiv Gandhi, achieved a landslide victory in the Lok Sabha elections, securing 404 seats and a 48.12% vote share. This remains the highest seat tally and vote share ever achieved by any political party in Indian history. Since then, no party has come close to these numbers, with the exception of the BJP's 37.7% vote share in the 2019 general elections.
Current Political Landscape:
The BJP has been in power since 2014 and is seeking a third consecutive term in office. The party is riding on the popularity of Prime Minister Modi, who enjoys high approval ratings. However, the BJP faces challenges from the opposition, including the Congress and various regional parties. The Congress is looking to regain its support, particularly in states where the BJP has traditionally been weak. Other parties, such as the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC), are also expected to play a significant role in the elections.
Exit Poll Predictions:
Major exit polls have predicted a clear victory for the NDA, with the BJP projected to win between 270-295 seats. However, it is important to note that exit polls have sometimes proven unreliable in the past. For example, in 2004, they had predicted a BJP victory, but the INC ended up emerging victorious.
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The 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be closely watched both in India and abroad. The outcome of the election will have significant implications for the future of Indian politics and the country's economic and social development.
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